It was eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a sign or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. After the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row , having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough query to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the wins have piled up.
According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the team had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team which has just won ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – but right now the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and wait for their star man to save the day with two precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
A reversion to average might be the greatest opponent Villa have to face as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the football into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while looking like a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
